Most forecasts are fiction. Yours doesn't have to be.
Your business needs cash and certainty to grow.
Cash comes from profit or capital.
Certainty is harder.
Most founders look for it in knowledge, experience, or expensive consultants who've "done it before."
The problem? Knowledge has gaps. Experts are often wrong. Most forecasts are fiction. But yours doesn't have to be.
Why most forecasting doesn't work
Walk into most ecommerce businesses and you'll find one of three scenarios.
The spreadsheet nightmare
Someone built a financial model nobody understands anymore. Full of outdated assumptions. Broken formulas nobody's noticed. Takes days to update when you need to change anything.
The finger-in-the-air approach
"We did $X last year, let's aim for $Y this year." No idea if it's realistic, what it would take to get there, or whether you'd be profitable if you hit it. A number that sounds ambitious enough for investors.
The over-engineered monster
Someone built a model with multiple scenarios, sensitivity analysis, and Monte Carlo simulations. Theoretically brilliant. Practically useless because it's too complex for decision-making.
None of these help you run your business.
What you need from a forecast
A forecast should do three things:
Give your team usable targets
Real numbers tied to real activities real people influence. Not aspirational nonsense.
Show you where you're tracking before it's too late
If you're going to miss targets, you need to know early when you do something about it.
Help you make investment decisions with confidence
Should you hire that next person? Expand into a new channel? Place a big inventory order? Your forecast should make these decisions clearer.
How this works
The frameworks I've developed are built on your operating history, not generic industry benchmarks or wishful thinking.
We analyse what's happened in your business. Seasonality, conversion patterns, customer behaviour, channel performance. We use this to build accurate forecasts across sales, costs, and operating profit.
The mechanics are straightforward. The concepts are simple enough for your team to understand. The results are substantial.
You get visibility into what's driving your numbers.
Not vanity metrics. The levers moving revenue and profit.
Plan with confidence
When you know what the next quarter looks like, you make better decisions about hiring, inventory, and marketing spend.
Your team gets targets that make sense
Specific, achievable targets based on reality. Better performance, better morale, less time wasted chasing the wrong things.
Stop being surprised by your P&L
You'll know whether you're on track or off track before the month closes. You do something about it instead of reading bad news six weeks too late.
Who this is for
You're doing significant revenue with enough history to work with.
You're tired of running your business on gut feel, but you don't need some overly complex model requiring a PhD to interpret.
You want to make better decisions faster, and you understand decent forecasting pays for itself in avoided mistakes.
What happens next
We start with your data. Revenue, costs, traffic, conversion. Whatever you're tracking.
Then we build the model fitting your business. Not a template. A framework reflecting how your business works.
You'll get forecasts you trust and targets your team uses. When reality diverges from the plan, which it will, you'll know why and what to do about it.
The brands scaling profitably aren't the ones with the fanciest models. They're the ones seeing what's coming and adjusting before it's too late.
Let's make sure you're one of them.