Most forecasts are fiction. Yours doesn't have to be.

Your business needs cash and certainty to grow.

Cash comes from profit or capital. Certainty is harder. Most founders look for it in knowledge, experience, or expensive consultants who've "done it before."

The problem? Knowledge has gaps. Experts are often wrong.

Better option: data and probability.

Why most forecasting doesn't work

Walk into most ecommerce businesses and you'll find one of three scenarios:

The spreadsheet nightmare

Someone built a financial model that nobody understands anymore. Full of outdated assumptions. Broken formulas nobody's noticed. Takes days to update when you need to change anything.

The finger-in-the-air approach

"We did $X last year, let's aim for $Y this year." No idea if it's realistic, what it would take to get there, or whether you'd be profitable if you hit it. Just a number that sounds ambitious enough for investors.

The over-engineered monster

Someone built a model with multiple scenarios, sensitivity analysis, and Monte Carlo simulations. Theoretically brilliant. Practically useless because it's too complex for actual decision-making.

None of these help you run your business.

What you actually need from a forecast

A forecast should do three things:

Give your team usable targets

Real numbers tied to real activities that real people can influence. Not aspirational nonsense.

Show you where you're tracking before it's too late

If you're going to miss targets, you need to know early—when you can still do something about it.

Help you make investment decisions with confidence

Should you hire that next person? Expand into that new channel? Place that big inventory order? Your forecast should make these decisions clearer.

How this actually works

The frameworks I've developed are built on your operating history, not generic industry benchmarks or wishful thinking.

We analyse what's actually happened in your business—seasonality, conversion patterns, customer behaviour, channel performance—and use that to build accurate forecasts across sales, costs, and operating profit.

The mechanics are straightforward. The concepts are simple enough that your team can understand them. The results are remarkable.

You get visibility into what's really driving your numbers

Not vanity metrics. The actual levers that move revenue and profit.

You can plan with confidence

When you know what the next quarter looks like, you can make better decisions about hiring, inventory, and marketing spend.

Your team gets targets that make sense

Specific, achievable targets based on reality. Better performance, better morale, less time wasted chasing the wrong things.

You stop being surprised by your P&L

You'll know whether you're on track or off track before the month closes. Which means you can actually do something about it.

Who this is for

You're doing significant revenue with enough history to work with.

You're tired of running your business on gut feel, but you don't need some overly complex model that requires a PhD to interpret.

You want to make better decisions faster, and you understand that decent forecasting pays for itself in avoided mistakes.

What happens next

We start with your data. Revenue, costs, traffic, conversion—whatever you're tracking.

Then we build the model that fits your business. Not a template. A framework that reflects how your business actually works.

You'll get forecasts you can trust and targets your team can use. When reality diverges from the plan—which it will—you'll know why and what to do about it.

The brands that scale profitably aren't the ones with the fanciest models. They're the ones that can see what's coming and adjust before it's too late.

Let's make sure you're one of them.