Most forecasts are fiction. Yours doesn't have to be.
Your business needs two things to grow: cash and certainty.
Cash usually comes from profit or capital. Certainty? That's harder. Most founders look for it in knowledge, experience, or by hiring expensive consultants who've "done it before."
The problem is that knowledge has gaps and experts are usually wrong.
So let's use the next best option: data and probability.
Why most forecasting doesn't work
Walk into most ecommerce businesses and you'll find one of three scenarios:
The spreadsheet nightmare
Someone built a financial model two years ago that nobody really understands anymore. It's full of assumptions that made sense at the time but haven't been updated. The formulas are broken in places nobody's noticed yet. And it takes three days to update whenever you need to change something.
The finger-in-the-air approach
"We did $2M last year, let's aim for $3M this year." No idea if that's realistic, what it would take to get there, or whether you'd even be profitable if you hit it. Just a number that sounds ambitious enough to put in front of investors or the board.
The over-engineered monster
Some well-meaning finance person built a model with seventeen scenarios, sensitivity analysis, and Monte Carlo simulations. It's theoretically brilliant and practically useless because it's too complex for anyone to actually use for decision-making.
None of these help you run your business day to day.
What you actually need from a forecast
A forecast should do three things:
Give your team targets they can actually use to make decisions every day. Not aspirational nonsense. Real numbers tied to real activities that real people can influence.
Show you where you're tracking before it's too late to do anything about it. If you're going to miss your targets, you need to know in week three, not week twelve.
Help you make better decisions about investment, hiring, inventory, and cash. Should you hire that next person? Expand into that new channel? Place that big inventory order? Your forecast should make these decisions clearer, not cloudier.
How this actually works
The frameworks I've developed over the past decade are built on your operating history, not on generic industry benchmarks or wishful thinking.
Together we look at what's actually happened in your business in terms of seasonality, conversion patterns, customer behaviour, channel performance and use that to build surprisingly accurate forecasts across sales, costs, and operating profit.
The mechanics are straightforward. The concepts are simple enough that your team can understand them. But the results can be extraordinary.
Gain visibility into what's really driving your numbers
Not vanity metrics. The actual levers that move revenue and profit. So you’ll know exactly where to focus your attention and resources.
Plan with confidence
When you know with reasonable certainty what the next quarter looks like, you can make better decisions about everything from hiring to inventory to marketing spend.
Team targets that make sense
Instead of arbitrary growth percentages, they get specific, achievable targets based on reality. That means better performance, better morale, and less time wasted chasing the wrong things.
Stop being surprised by your P&L
You'll know whether you're on track or off track before the month closes. Which means you have ample opportunity to do something about it instead of finding out after the fact.
Who this is for
You're revenue is more than $2M+ annually and there’s enough history there to work with.
You're tired of running your business on gut feel and guesswork, but you don't need some overly complex model that requires a PhD to interpret.
You want to make better decisions faster, and you appreciate that a proven forecasting framework often pays for itself within the first couple of months.
What happens next
We start with your ecommerce & marketing analytics data including revenue, AOV, operations & paid media costs, traffic, ROAS, conversion - basically anything we can measure.
Then we build the model that fits your business. Not a template. Not a one-size-fits-all solution. A framework that reflects how your business actually works.
You'll get forecasts you can trust and targets your team can use. And when reality diverges from the plan, which it will, you'll know why and what to do about it.
The brands that scale profitably aren't the ones with the most complex models. They're the ones who know their business targets from one day to the next.
Let's make sure you're one of them.
